Tariffs may be hitting your wallet long after they take effect.
New research from the New York Fed found that for every 1 percentage point increase in tariffs, consumer goods prices rise by about 0.25% after one year.
That means a 10% tariff on all imports would push consumer goods prices about 2.6% higher within 12 months.
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Researchers found imported goods tend to become more expensive first, but U.S.-made products can also rise in price as companies pay more for imported parts and materials.
The report estimated that roughly one-quarter of a tariff increase is ultimately passed on to consumer goods prices.
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Researchers also found that by February 2026, tariffs had contributed 2.9 percentage points to consumer goods inflation.